000
ABNT20 KNHC 141733
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAVE
DIMINISHED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT DRIFTS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA...CUBA AND
ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN