000
ABNT20 KNHC 141136
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST
OF BERMUDA. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT DRIFTS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...CUBA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN