000
ABNT20 KNHC 140532
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
IS PRODUCING A LIMITED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE
LOW MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA.  SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT DRIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA...CUBA
AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE