000
ABNT20 KNHC 132346
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS LOW COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SHARP INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...CUBA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS A COMMON
OCCURRENCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING OCTOBER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG