000
ABNT20 KNHC 131735
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES
HAVE FALLEN IN THIS AREA...ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN