000
ABNT20 KNHC 131415
TWOAT 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1015 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO INCLUDE DISCUSSION OF SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS.

UPDATED...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED A COUPLE OF
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF EAST
PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E...EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN