000
ABNT20 KNHC 240530
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 490 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN
THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM LATER TODAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE