000
ABNT20 KNHC 232341
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE
CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  ALTHOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE AREA HAVE BEEN FALLING...DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG