000
ABNT20 KNHC 202334
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THIS AREA TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 MPH.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THIS LOW COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN