000
ABNT20 KNHC 190538
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART