000
ABNT20 KNHC 182334
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 
1550 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART