000
ABNT20 KNHC 011547
TWOAT 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED TO GIVE AN UPDATE ON THE 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF BERMUDA.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS MAINLY ON ITS EAST SIDE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE LATER TODAY...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  INTERESTS
ALONG THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

UPDATED...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH
OF BERMUDA APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM.  THE LOW IS MOVING LITTLE AT THIS
TIME...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI