000
ABNT20 KNHC 250543
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IRENE...LOCATED 105 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD WARMER WATERS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING.  IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE... ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED
LATER THIS MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN