000
ABNT20 KNHC 242355
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON MAJOR
HURRICANE IRENE...LOCATED NEAR LONG ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD WARMER WATERS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN