000
ABNT20 KNHC 241743
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON MAJOR
HURRICANE IRENE...LOCATED NEAR CROOKED ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 15 MPH TOWARD WARMER WATERS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT... OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE