000
ABNT20 KNHC 201157
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ROATAN
HONDURAS.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. 
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA. 
HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS
TIME.  SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DISTURBANCE.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

A LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.  THE LOW IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN