000
ABNT20 KNHC 200534
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES EAST OF ROATAN HONDURAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...HAVE
INCREASED A BIT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.  INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND OVER PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG