000
ABNT20 KNHC 192356
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES EAST OF ROATAN HONDURAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 20 MPH.  INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ABOUT 100
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DRIER AIR BY
SUNDAY.   THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.   REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE