000
ABNT20 KNHC 191757
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
NEWLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM HARVEY...LOCATED ABOUT 155 MILES 
EAST OF ROATAN HONDURAS.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 20 MPH.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE LOW IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/STEWART/WROE