000
ABNT20 KNHC 190544
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT...MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HONDURAS.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1125 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONDUCIVE AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
SATURDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 20 MPH.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THE LOW IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA