000
ABNT20 KNHC 182336
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING
BETTER-DEFINED AND A SURFACE LOW COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 100 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AS
LONG AS THE DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFFSHORE.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA
AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS
WAVE IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.   

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN