000
ABNT20 KNHC 181731
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON EXPERIENCED
MECHANICAL PROBLEMS AND HAD TO RETURN TO BASE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
COASTS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. 

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH