000
ABNT20 KNHC 180532
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO
FALL NEAR THE DISTURBANCE AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...
NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND EASTERN YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI