000
ABNT20 KNHC 172330
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT FIND A
CLOSED CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  INTERESTS
ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH