000
ABNT20 KNHC 171736
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN MUCH OVER THIS REGION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT
IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN