000
ABNT20 KNHC 160531
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. 

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF AT ALL...OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR
UNTIL IT REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A FEW DAYS. THIS WAVE HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI