000
ABNT20 KNHC 152338
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.  THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME AND PRESSURES ARE NOT
FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH