000
ABNT20 KNHC 151741
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 95 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. 

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS OF
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART