000
ABNT20 KNHC 151157
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. 

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650
MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL STORM GERT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART