000
ABNT20 KNHC 150533
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. 

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL STORM GERT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN