000
ABNT20 KNHC 142342
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. 

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
THE SYSTEM STILL DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE
ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM GERT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.  FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH