000
ABNT20 KNHC 141753
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM GERT...LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. 

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM STILL MAY NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM GERT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.  FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON TROPICAL STORM GERT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BERG