000
ABNT20 KNHC 132349
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 730 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED.  IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE
INITIATED LATER TONIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 

A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING  A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. 

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAS DIMINISHED.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN