000
ABNT20 KNHC 131743
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 605 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. 

A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS GRADUALLY SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. 

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTHWEST 
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS 
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART