000
ABNT20 KNHC 131145
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A 
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM 
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS 
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AT AROUND 20 MPH. 

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST 
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ONLY 
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART