000
ABNT20 KNHC 130540
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX...LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH. 

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY.  SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE