000
ABNT20 KNHC 122331
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 
20 MPH.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.  SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED
ABOUT 675 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  CONTINUED SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN