000
ABNT20 KNHC 121810
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

CORRECTED DATE IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE
MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF 
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 
20 MPH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS
TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.  SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.  SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART