000
ABNT20 KNHC 121156
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1175 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20
MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 160 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THIS DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.  SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART