000
ABNT20 KNHC 120536
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 15 MPH.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY CURRENTLY BE ENCOUNTERING A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT
250 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THIS
DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.  SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN