000
ABNT20 KNHC 110535
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ARE LOCATED ABOUT 630 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
10 MPH.  THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWS SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. 
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN