000
ABNT20 KNHC 102348
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.  ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
10 MPH.  THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A NEW AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS EMERGED FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA
AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.  SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN