000
ABNT20 KNHC 101735
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.  

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.  ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ARE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10
MPH.  WHILE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE
CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN