000
ABNT20 KNHC 060545
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM EMILY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  IN ADDITION...THE SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH IN THE AREA.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN