000
ABNT20 KNHC 011146
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST 
OF MARTINIQUE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...AND 
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. 
A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE TO DETERMINE IF IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER.  IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TODAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF 
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY 
SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR 
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART