000
ABNT20 KNHC 010531
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
EASTWARD SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 350
MILES EAST OF MARTINIQUE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.  IF
THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.  A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS MORNING.  REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH