000
ABNT20 KNHC 312335
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
EASTWARD SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. 
IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT
NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING.  REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN