000
ABNT20 KNHC 311735
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 575 
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF THIS BROAD
DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER. IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART