000
ABNT20 KNHC 311142
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE AND
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF 
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY
TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART