000
ABNT20 KNHC 310542
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BE CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  TROPICAL
CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE
TO INTERACTION WITH LAND.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG